(The) Boring Investor

That is how long I held to a value stock known as Frencken. 0.535 when it was still known as ElectroTech. As you can see, for an extremely long 9.5 years, the share price recovered to its earlier levels never, until only lately. In between, it transformed its name from ElectroTech to Frencken and had taken over not 1, but 2 SGX listed companies (ETLA and JukenTech)! It’s been a very long 9.5 years for Frencken shareholders who bought it as a value stock.

In value trading, you are told you need to be patient often; the day should come whenever your value stock will rise significantly and become a potential multi-bagger that. However, what is not stated is how will you have to wait for this to occur long. And regarding Frencken, it had taken 10 years for it to recuperate to its prior levels almost. You may ask, did I make a mistake for identifying Frencken as a value stock as well as for buying it at too much a price?

0.535, these translated to P/E ratios of 5.6 times and 6.two times, P/B ratios of just one 1.16 times and 1.02 times, and dividend produce of 5.0% and 4.9% respectively. These numbers claim that Frencken was a value stock while i first got it and I certainly did not pay too a higher price for this. The idea I am trying to make is this: value investing does not always work.

It is not a case of shopping for an undervalued stock and eventually it will become a multi-bagger. It is not that simple. As I determined later, being undervalued is a necessary but inadequate condition for a stock to go up to its intrinsic value. Various other catalysts must be there for the rise to materialise, like a bull run, recovery in earnings, asset sales with special dividends, etc. Being undervalued is not sufficient alone. 0.of this yr 24 since the beginning.

If being undervalued is the only necessary condition for a stock to go up, why did I have to wait for not 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, but a decade for it to rise almost? I used to be always a value investor too. When the value stock that I purchased rose, I believed that value investing worked.

When the stock didn’t rise, I told myself to show patience, that 1 day the marketplace would eventually recognise the stock’s value and give it its rightful valuation. When the stock lowered and turned into a value capture further, I thought that there must be something which i missed and really should work harder to improve my value investing skills. Seldom do I think that there could be various other factors at work that could determine to a larger level whether I make money or lose money on stocks and shares.

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If the value stocks increased, value trading was right (never mind that there could be an over-all bull market as in the case of 2004). If the stocks did not rise, value investing was not responsible! It was only around 2011 which i realised that something was amiss with value trading. I found out that the stocks and shares that I purchased through the Global Financial Crisis did not rise in so far as i expected. It had been then which i finally comprehended that value investing will not always work.

Being undervalued is a required but inadequate condition for stocks to rise. Having said the above mentioned, value trading did not totally disappear from my investment strategies. The principles of not overpaying for investments have continued to stay with me (see What is My Target Price?). And I am actually very thankful to have learnt value investing back then in 2001. It taught me a scientific method to value stocks of using gut feel instead.

But value trading could only bring me this significantly. To continue my investing trip, I experienced to understand what worked well for value discard and investing what didn’t. 10 years. That is how long I kept to a stock bought on the thesis of a winning formula. How many 10 years does anyone have in his trading life time to realise that his much cherished winning formula will not always work?

I say “hold” specifically to tell apart it from “originate” or “make” loans, that are securitized and sold then. We’ve done this Once, financial crises are over. A 100% equity-financed institution cannot fail, and cannot suffer a run. Fail means neglect to pay your financial situation, and if you have no debt you can not fail.